Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
